Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Friday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Friday, September 2, 2022.
We have a full 15-game schedule today in MLB with all 30 teams in action. Everything will be played under the lights tonight giving us plenty of options for this Friday evening.
Weather is mostly clear across the league, although there is some risk of rain in Atlanta and St. Louis. I do have interest in pitchers in both of those spots as I like the over for all of Charlie Morton, Sandy Alcantara and Jordan Montgomery. However, all three are heavily juiced to the over and the added rain risk will prevent them from being official plays today.
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Free MLB Player Props Picks For Friday
David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Let’s get started in New York, where the Mets take on the Washington Nationals. David Peterson will make his 17th start of the season for the Mets.
Peterson has been solid this season with a 3.21 ERA that is supported by a 3.59 SIERA and 3.36 xFIP. The strikeouts have been well-above average at 27.3%, while the walks are a little higher than you would like at 10.5%.
Peterson has been over 5.5 strikeouts in 11 of his 17 starts this season, including 8 of his last 9 starts. His strikeout rate over those 9 starts and 2 relief appearances since June 20 is all the way up at an elite 32.9%.
Today, he gets a matchup against a Washington team that has seen its strikeout rate jump from 19.3% to 22.6% since trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Perhaps more importantly for Peterson, who can struggle with control at times, their walk rate has also dipped considerably from 8.3% before the trade to just 5.2% since then.
Peterson should be able maintain efficiency against this low-walk version of the Nationals and pitch deep into the game today. I think he continues this excellent stretch and goes over 5.5 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Next, we head down to Tampa Bay for an important AL East battle between the Rays and the New York Yankees. The Rays are now within shouting distance of what once seemed an insurmountable lead in the division for the Yankees. New York is coming off a dreadful August in which they posted just a 10-18 record.
Tampa Bay will send left-hander Jeffrey Springs to the mound for his 19th start of the season. Springs has been outstanding since moving into the rotation full-time earlier this season. He has posted a sparkling 2.76 ERA that is mostly supported by a 3.20 SIERA and 3.13 xFIP. He has been a little fortunate with an 82% strand rate, but he has still been excellent after adjusting for that. His strikeout rate is well-above average at 27.0% and his walk rate is an exceptional 5.6%.
Springs has been over 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 18 starts this season. He did not have his best stuff the last time he faced the Yankees, but he still escaped with just 1 run allowed and 4 strikeouts over 5 innings. That start was in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium as opposed to his pitcher-friendly home park where he pitches today. His start at home against the Yankees in May went very well. He lasted 6 innings with 2 runs allowed and 6 strikeouts.
The Yankees are no doubt a difficult matchup, but their recent struggles should not be overlooked. In August, they posted just an 87 wRC+ with a .287 wOBA that ranked fifth worst in baseball. They also struck out at a 23.2% rate.
Springs gets the benefit of pitching at home today in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, and he catches the Yankees at a time when they have been through prolonged struggles. I think he posts another good outing against them and goes over 4.5 strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Sticking with our east coast theme today, we close it out in Boston, where the Red Sox take on the Texas Rangers. Nick Pivetta takes the ball for the 27th time this season as he looks to rebound from a rough outing against Tampa his last time out.
Pivetta has had his struggles this season with a 4.40 ERA. His 22.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate both sit right around league average.
Before his rough outing against Tampa Bay, Pivetta posted two great starts against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. He recorded 9 strikeouts against Baltimore and threw 7 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts against Pittsburgh. He faces a Texas team today that is closer to that level of competition.
Texas has been right around league average this year with a 103 wRC+ and a .310 wOBA, but they have struck out at a 23.3% rate. Seven of the nine hitters in their projected lineup have struck out more than 22% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season, and four of them have struck out over 28% of the time.
Another thing working in our favor today is the leash for Pivetta. He has thrown at least 100 pitches in three of his last four starts, and threw 99 pitches in the other one. He has averaged over 5.5 innings and nearly 94 pitches per start this season.
Pivetta may have some flaws, but he does have at least average strikeout ability, and he has flashed much better than that many times throughout his career. There is plenty of swing-and-miss in this Texas lineup today for him to have a great start. I think he lasts at least six innings in this one and goes over 5.5 strikeouts.
Eys Breakers Betting Card Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
- Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-158, Caesars)
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, PointsBet)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets!