Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Wednesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Wednesday, June 8, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 15 games on the MLB schedule today. The Pirates/Tigers game is already underway, with Blue Jays/Royals also taking place this afternoon. Everything else gets started at 6:40 ET or later.
We have four weather situations to monitor, with significant postponement risk in Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland. Atlanta is looking dicey as well. Stay tuned into the RotoGrinders weather page to get all of Kevin Roth’s latest updates. I have interest in a resurgent Ian Anderson to go over 4.5 strikeouts today, but will hold off until getting Roth’s update closer to first pitch.
Free MLB Strikeout Props Picks For Today
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Let’s get started in Milwaukee, with the Brewers hosting the Philadelphia Phillies.
Aaron Nola will make his 12th start of the season for Philadelphia.
Nola is currently carrying a 3.92 ERA, but the underlying metrics tell us he has pitched much better than that. His 2.63 SIERA and 2.78 xFIP put him much closer to elite than his ERA suggests. The strikeouts are above 30% and the walks are all the way down at 3.8%. His ground ball rate is also back above league-average after seeing a dip last season.
Nola also has one of the longest leashes in baseball. He has thrown over 100 pitches in three starts already this season, and he has topped 90 pitches in each of his last seven starts.
His matchup today against Milwaukee is also a positive factor. The Brewers have struck out at 24% this year, which ranks seventh highest in baseball. They have been a slightly below-average offense overall with their .311 wOBA and 97 wRC+. No one in their projected lineup today has a strikeout rate below 19.6% versus right-handed pitching this year, and five batters are above 24% strikeouts versus righties.
Nola’s long leash should allow him to pitch deep into this game and go over 6.5 strikeouts.
Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Next, we look to Houston, for an AL West showdown between the Astros and Seattle Mariners. Jose Urquidy makes his eleventh start of the season for the Astros.
Urquidy has not been great this year as he has pitched to a 4.76 ERA. His 4.17 SIERA and 4.33 xFIP suggest he has been a little unlucky, but he still rates below league average. His strikeout rate is down at 17.5% and he is allowing over 41% hard contact. He has been over 4.5 strikeouts in only three of his 10 starts this season.
He faced this Mariners team less than two weeks ago and allowed 6 runs (5 earned) in only 4.2 innings, while recording 4 strikeouts. He also faced the Mariners in his second start of the season. He allowed 6 runs (all earned) in 4 innings, and recorded only 2 strikeouts.
I think the Mariners get to Urquidy yet again and don’t allow him to make it past 5 innings. Give me the under 4.5 strikeouts.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Out in Anaheim, things have reached desperation level for the Los Angeles Angels. They fired their manager yesterday only to drop a heartbreaker in extra innings to the Boston Red Sox to bring their losing streak to 13 games.
Things do not get any easier today for the Angels as Boston sends their ace, Nathan Eovaldi, to the mound. It will be the twelfth start of the season for Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has been very good this season with a 3.41 ERA, 26.0% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. His 3.10 SIERA and 3.14 xFIP suggest he has been even better than his already excellent results.
The spiraling Angels have seen the strikeout rise all the way up to 24.6% which ranks third-highest in baseball. Mike Trout left yesterday’s game after tweaking his groin and seems like he will miss some time. Over the last two weeks, the Angels have posted just a .270 wOBA and 75 wRC+. Their projected lineup today, sans Mike Trout, owns a 27.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season.
Eovaldi should be able to capitalize on this reeling Angels team and post some big numbers today. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts.
Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Finally, we head out to San Diego where the Padres host the New York Mets. Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Padres in his eleventh start of the season.
Manaea owns a 3.77 ERA that is supported by a 3.50 SIERA and 3.47 xFIP. The strikeout rate is well-above average at 27.1%. He has been over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his ten starts this season.
It is not all good news for Manaea as he gets a difficult matchup with the Mets today. They own one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league at 19.6%. They have been one of the top offenses in MLB with a .327 wOBA and 115 wRC+ that both rank in the top three.
Manaea’s ability to pitch deep into games is what keeps him in play today. He has thrown over 100 pitches in three starts this season, and he has been over 95 pitches in each of his last six starts. He pitched through the sixth inning in each of those starts. In fact, he has lasted at least six innings in nine of his ten starts this year.
I like him to limit the damage against a very good Mets team and go over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Eys Breakers Betting Card For Wednesday
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher’s strikeout props to target:
- Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108, FanDuel)
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112, FanDuel)
- Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!