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Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (7/14/22)

Timothy Buell Thu 7/14 10:37am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Thursday’s MLB games.

Happy Thursday everyone! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB player props picks that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds.

Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts

There is no bigger strikeout team than the Los Angeles Angels who collectively strike out at 26.5% rate. Tonight should be no different.

The big issue with Framber Valdez is the control, with walks up near the 10% mark. However, with the Angels being so impatient at the plate, I am not as concerned with his inefficiencies. The last time Valdez met this Angels’ squad was 11 days ago, when he struck-out 13 batters, despite walking five hitters!

Normally, I wouldn’t advocate game-log watching, but it makes sense that he was able to strike out as many hitters as he did.  Obviously, 13 K’s is an outlier, but if he were to reach double digits again, it wouldn’t shock me. 

Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson and Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases Each

These prices will range anywhere from -110 to -115 and I will be betting all three. You could conceivably parlay these three props and it would pay +450 on DraftKings. 

The Braves will be facing Anibal Sanchez, who hasn’t pitched since September of 2020, yes you read that right. He didn’t sign with a team in 2021 and has since started four games at AAA this season.  Although I don’t expect him to be on a pitch count I don’t foresee him having success in this game.

He was a far below average pitcher, who tended to give up home runs and had a declining ground ball rate in his last few years in the majors. I am not going to think twice about attacking him in the prop market today with Acuna, Olson and Riley. 

Max Kepler To Hit A Home Run

Cueto’s HR/FB ratio is the lowest it has been in six years and I don’t think it is sustainable. His hard-hit rate is elevated and I think he is due for some home-run regression. 

Max Kepler is the best value on the Twins today. Kepler should be in a good lineup spot and I am going to wager a half unit on the home run today. 

There is a lot of variance in betting home runs so I am highly selective when doing so. I have confidence that Cueto gives up a couple today and am hoping Kepler gets one at this really attractive price.