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Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (7/5/22)

Timothy Buell Tue 7/5 10:15am PT
Our MLB experts are betting on Nick Castellanos to go over 1.5 total bases today.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Tuesday’s MLB games.

Happy Tuesday everyone! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB props picks that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds.

Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tuesday

This is a wager more on concerns of pitch count, than it is an indictment of his talent. The Rays are notorious for not letting their starters have much of a leash, and with Springs not having pitched in 10 days, I can see them not letting him get over 80 pitches. 

If that is indeed the case, he will have to be very efficient to get over this total. Projection systems have him for anywhere from 75-80 pitches. I have a very strong lean that he goes under this strikeout line and with the positive odds, it gives me enough value to make it a bet. 

Hoskins and Castellanos headline the best spot for hitters today, then look no further than the Phillies against Paolo Espino. 

Espino’s expected ERA is over a full run higher than his actual ERA. He has a strikeout rate under 20% and has skated by with an unsustainable BABIP profile. 

The weather is also a tremendous advantage today for anyone playing in this game, with temperatures that will be reaching the mid-80’s, and double-digit winds blowing out to center. You could add Kyle Schwarber to this, but I am going to stick with just the two Phillies for my bankroll. I am also adding over .5 RBI’s for Hoskins and Castellanos.

There should be plenty of chances for this whole team to dominate. I just can’t get behind the home run props; they are not priced high enough for me to justify the risk of a lower outcome event. 

I won’t lie, this feels like a trap, but I am going to go ahead and jump right in regardless. Noah Syndergaard is far-and-away the worst pitcher at holding on runners in the entire league. 

If Berti gets on, he will be stealing second base – I have no doubt. Berti leads the league by five in the stolen-base department and he could potentially get more than one today. I know that the line is priced far too low to be getting actual expected value, but I really think this is too good of a spot to pass up – even if it is only +115. 

One of the reasons that I didn’t want to spend the money on the Phillies home run props, is because I wanted to save it for these two bets. 

The books are giving better odds for Tucker and Alvarez to hit home runs than the Phillies’ power bats. 

Zack Greinke has had two-straight good starts, but those were against the Rangers and the Athletics, who are not exactly offensive juggernauts.

The Astros should have no problem hitting the ball very hard against him today and these odds are good enough to make a bet in the home-run market.

Greinke has a lower than expected HR/FB ratio, which I would expect to go up as the season progresses.  He is giving up more and more hard hits every single season and today should be no different against this powerhouse Astros team.