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Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Will Miami Heat Cover Game 6 Spread?

Derek Farnsworth Fri 5/27 6:11am PT
Heat vs. Celtics picks
(Image Credit: Imagn)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his Game 6 prediction for the Heat vs. Celtics on Friday, May 27. Make sure to use our PointsBet promo for up to $2000 in free bets!

STAY HOT!

We are now riding a four-game winning streak and grabbed another series win thanks to the Warriors closing out the Mavericks on Thursday night. Despite only committing seven turnovers and shooting 40% from the three-point line, it was enough for the Mavericks to extend the series. All five starters for the Warriors played great and Jordan Poole had his best game of the series. The Warriors now await the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Many ideas are good in theory, but not in practice. When I came up with the idea to bet on every single game and every single series, I figured it would be an entertaining test where I could log the ups and downs of betting. I was hoping to be profitable, but I set low expectations. It turns out that when you are tasked with writing a betting article every day, you put more effort and more research into each game. It’s been a fun ride and I hope to keep it going during the NBA Finals. 

Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Running Totals 

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat: Expert Pick & Prediction

When I pulled up the odds for this game, I was genuinely surprised. The Celtics opened as 9-point favorites and currently sit at 8.5-point favorites on most sports betting apps, such as Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel. This is easily the largest spread that we’ve seen in the series. In fact, it’s the largest spread that we’ve seen in either of the Conference Finals. After doing a deep dive into the numbers, the spread actually makes a lot of sense. On top of that, casual bettors are more likely to bet the home favorite than the road underdog. 

Let’s get into the numbers – the Celtics have won 15 of the first 20 quarters in this series, they have had an edge on the glass, and they have shot the ball much better than the Heat. While Miami has taken better care of the ball, that’s not an edge that we should expect to continue on the road. Boston is a tough environment to begin with, especially when you have lost two games in a row and are staring elimination in the face. 

Injuries have been a major story in this series and that continues in Game 6 – Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Tyler Herro are all listed as questionable. Smart and Williams were both able to play through their injuries in Game 5, but Herro has missed the last two games. Additionally, Jimmy Butler hasn’t looked the same since hurting his knee in Game 3. He missed the second half of that game and has struggled mightily in each of the last two games. 

I would love to take the easy way out and bet the Celtics moneyline here. Honestly, that’s likely what I will do with the majority of my bankroll that I have sectioned off for this game.

However, moneylines are not part of the deal when it comes to this article. You can call it a hedge if you like since I have the Celtics to win the series, but this feels like too many points. Herro could suit up and be a nice boost for the offense, Butler could flash his pre-Game 3 form, and Miami’s starting backcourt could actually look like they’ve played basketball at some point in their lives. 

The best case scenario here is a Boston win by 1-to-8 points.