Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Monday, June 13, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 10 games on the MLB schedule today with all of them starting at 7:05 ET or later.
Weather looks to be mostly clear across the country, with one possible exception in Detroit. RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth currently forecasts the rain to hold off until near the end of the game, but make sure to stay updated over on the weather page.
Free MLB Strikeout Props To Target Monday
Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+122)
Let’s get started in Toronto, where the Blue Jays welcome the Baltimore Orioles to town for a four-game series.
Alek Manoah will make his 12th start of the season for the Blue Jays as he looks to build on what has been an excellent Sophomore season.
Manoah currently owns a 1.81 ERA this year, although his 3.68 SIERA and 3.75 xFIP suggest he may have been a little fortunate with the results. The strikeout rate is actually down significantly from his rookie season, but he has improved the walk rate considerably.
His strikeout rate this season sits right around league average at 22.3% after being nearly 28% last season. The swinging strike rate is down a point as well at 11.5%. Opponents are making contact at a higher rate against him this year, both inside and outside of the strike zone, despite swinging at more pitches overall.
Manoah has been under 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of his 11 starts this season. The matchup may look great for strikeouts on the surface as Baltimore owns the 7th highest strikeout rate in baseball at 23.7%, but it is actually not as great as you might think. Their strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching ranks just 15th and is down at 22.7%.
Additionally, top prospect Adley Rutschman recently joined the big league team, and he should post a far lower strikeout rate than other catchers Baltimore has rostered this year. He currently owns a 22.4% strikeout rate versus RHP, while Chirinos was up above 29% versus righties.
I expect Manoah to pitch well here and last deep into the game, but the decline in his strikeout rate, and Baltimore’s better contact rates versus right-handed pitching, are factors as well. I like him to stay under 5.5 strikeouts.
Kyle Bradish Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-149)
On the other side of this game, Baltimore will counter with rookie right-hander Kyle Bradish. He will be making his ninth start of the season.
Bradish has had some struggles to begin his career as he has pitched to a 6.45 ERA, although his 3.97 SIERA and 3.96 xFIP suggest he has been a little unlucky. He has displayed some solid skills with a 24.0% strikeout rate and 43.5% groundball rate, but the walks have been a little high at 9.6%.
When digging deeper into the numbers for Bradish, one thing immediately stands out. He has had extreme reverse splits in his debut season. Righties have crushed him to the tune of a .471 wOBA and .358 ISO. He is striking out just 18.9% of righties versus 30.6% of lefties. There may be a bit of a small sample size issue, but these numbers are too drastic to ignore.
The bad news for Bradish is this Toronto lineup is packed full of talented right-handed bats. They currently project to run 8 righties against him today. The Blue Jays have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB at 20.9% this season.
I think Toronto is able to put up some runs on Bradish and knock him out of this game early. Bradish has made it through 5 innings only once in his last five starts, and I don’t think he makes it there in this one. I like him to stay under 4.5 strikeouts in this very difficult matchup.
Zack Thompson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Let’s shift our focus to the midwest, where the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates kick off a four-game series tonight. Rookie left-hander Zack Thompson will make his first big league start for the Cardinals.
Thompson has one appearance in the majors this year that came in a blowout of the Cubs earlier this month. He threw 4 scoreless innings and recorded 3 strikeouts in mop-up duty.
The lefty has worked at AAA Memphis for the majority of this season and has flashed some serious strikeout upside. He has recorded 56 strikeouts in 44.1 innings for a 30.1% strikeout rate.
The matchup today for Thompson is about as good as it gets. Pittsburgh has struck out at the highest rate in MLB this season at 25.5%. Their .289 wOBA and 85 wRC+ both rank third-worst in MLB. The Pirates projected lineup contains six batters that have struck out at least 25% of the time versus lefties this year, and includes four that have struck out at least 29% of the time.
Thompson threw 74 pitches in his relief appearance against the Cubs, and he was working as a fully stretched out starter in the minors prior to that. He should be able to throw around 90 pitches today. I like him to go over 3.5 strikeouts against a bad Pirates offense.
Eys Breakers Betting Card For June 13, 2022
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+122, FanDuel)
- Kyle Bradish Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-149, PointsBet)
- Zack Thompson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-143, Points Bet)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!