NBA Expert Picks: Can Luka Carry Dallas To The NBA Finals? (5/18/22)
ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his expert picks and predictions for Wednesday, May 18th. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!
As bettors, we tend to remember the bad breaks over the good ones. For whatever reason, the losses stick with us longer than the wins. However, it’s important to realize that breaks happen both ways and that it’s all part of the game that we play. I had a break go in my favor yesterday, as both Marcus Smart and Al Horford were ruled out after I placed my bet on the Heat. The spread moved from 1.5 points all the way up to 4.5 points by the time the game tipped off.
The Celtics won three of the four quarters of Game 1, yet they lost the game. The Heat were able to outscore Boston by 25 points in the third quarter, which was clearly the difference in the game. Heat fans should be happy with the result and Celtics fans should feel optimistic as well. They put up a good fight on the road despite missing two of their starters. As far as the playoff tally goes, we are up three units and well on our way to ending the postseason with a profit.
Betting Through The NBA Playoffs: Running Totals
- Series Bets: 9-2
- Series Props: 3-4
- Series Profit/Loss: +0.53
- ATS Bets: 37-31-1
- ATS Profit/Loss: +2.5 units
- Total Profit/Loss: +3.03 units
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
| Warriors vs. Mavericks | Advantages (Regular Season) |
| Series Odds | Golden State -225 |
| Game 1 Spread | Golden State -5 |
| Offensive Rating | Dallas |
| Defensive Rating | Golden State |
| Rebounding Rate | Golden State |
| Turnovers | Dallas |
| Pont Differential | Golden State |
Western Conference Finals: Series Preview
I still don’t understand what happened in Game 7 in Phoenix, but the Mavericks have officially advanced to the Western Conference Finals. They have advanced through the first two rounds mainly due to three things – Luka Doncic, three-point shooting, and taking care of the basketball. They have averaged the fewest turnovers of any team that made it out of the first round and they have led all playoff teams in three-pointers made per game. They’ve also had the best player on the floor in each of their first two matchups.
The Warriors were able to knock off the Nuggets in five games and then the Grizzlies in six games. You can argue that they’ve had a fairly easy path, but similar to the Heat, that’s not something that we can hold against them. Perhaps the series against the Grizzlies would have gone differently if Ja Morant didn’t get hurt, but the Warriors have dealt with injuries of their own. None of their statistics from the playoffs really jump off the page and you have to think they’ll need to take better care of the ball than they did against Memphis.
The key trend in this series for me is that Golden State has won a playoff game on the road in 25-straight series. On top of that, they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. If we assume they pick up at least one game on the road and extend their incredible streak, that means the Mavericks will have to beat the Warriors twice in San Francisco. I have a hard time seeing that happening. I can’t wait to watch Luka battle it out with Stephen Curry, but it’s all Warriors in this series for me.
NBA Expert Picks For Today
- Series Prediction: Golden State (4-1)
- Series Bet: Golden State -225 (2.25 units)
- Game 1 Pick: Golden State –4.5 (BetMGM)