Lunch w/ Luuch: NFL & NBA Player Props & Picks That Could Eat (10/20/22)
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of some NBA & NFL player props and picks for Thursday night and Sunday’s main slate of NFL games!
Welcome back everyone! We’re currently in the midst of one of the best sports sequences of the year. The MLB playoffs are in full swing, the NFL is heading to Week 7, while the NBA and NHL have both started off with a bang!
With a bigger betting board to look at, I’m going to throw in a few picks to consider for both Thursday and Sunday. Let’s feast!
Free Player Props Picks For Thursday
NBA: Grayson Allen Over 12.5 Points
- Current Odds: -108 on FanDuel
I’m disagreeing with many projections on this one. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton on Thursday against the 76ers.
Across 740+ minutes without Middleton on the court last season, Allen owned a 3.4% usage increase and averaged 0.5 real points per minute. We currently have him projected for 30 minutes – and I think Connaughton’s void will solidify that number.
That 76ers showed me nothing new in their first game – minimal resistance for a team that’s “supposedly” a good defensive team. This is a case of simple math, and I also think Allen discovers a few easy buckets after some sloppy play from James Harden.
NFL: DeAndre Hopkins Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
- Current Odds: -135 on Caesars
I don’t have a firm analytical approach here with Nuk’s first game back from his suspension. However, can tell you that he owned a massive target market share, when healthy with Kyler Murray, while also being a top-30 aDOT receiver amongst those who played 10+ games last season.
Additionally, the Saints yield the fourth-highest target percentage to wide receivers at the sixth-highest success rate. Word on the street is that Hopkins is in fantastic shape. I’m not overthinking this one, he should be ready to rock-and-roll with the red birds!
Free NFL Player Props & Betting Picks For Sunday
Tennesee Titans Moneyline
- Current Odds: -139 on BetRivers
Off the top of my head, I knew the Titans were historically fantastic on extended rest under head coach Mike Vrabel.
But I didn’t expect them to be undefeated. Per Titans’ beat reporter John Glennon, Tennessee is a perfect 8-0 under Vrabel in regular season games with at least nine rest days.
It’s tough to sweep anyone divisional opponent, but Derrick Henry traditionally performs very well against the Colts. In fact, he was an EASY rushing prop winner for us during this article last month when the Titans defeated these same Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Sign me up, the rest factor and Vrabel having a long time to prepare gives us the green light.
Brian Robinson Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
- Current Odds: +115 on DraftKings
I love getting this number at plus money. Robinson played 27% of snaps during his season debut two weeks ago, prior to being named the team’s starting tailback against the Bears in Week 6.
Robinson played 47% of snaps against Chicago, while tallying 17 carries. I would expect this snap-share to creep north of 50% on Sunday against the Packers.
Green Bay is other-worldly awful against the run. Defensively, the Packers yield the third-highest rushing success rate and are bottom-10 against both gap and zone run schemes.
Washington CAN win this football game if they run the snot out of the pigskin and I think they’ll do just that, with an attack spearheaded by the rookie, who they seem to like way more than Antonio Gibson (for some reason).
If I’m Ron Rivera and company, I’m watching ALL of the Breece Hall tape this week and riping that exact blueprint.