Lunch w/ Luuch: NBA & NFL Player Props & Picks That Could Eat (10/26/22)
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of some NBA & NFL player props and picks for Wednesday and Thursday.
Welcome back everyone! We’re currently in the midst of one of the best sports sequences of the year. The World Series is set, the NFL is heading to Week 8, while the NBA and NHL have both started off with a bang!
Let’s take a look at a pair of NBA player props picks for this evening and another NFL pick for Thursday’s game between Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
Free NBA Player Props Picks
James Harden Over 22.5 Points (Multiple Sportsbooks)
Harden averaged exactly 22 points per game last season. This seems to be a lazy line set by the market today. Eye-test-wise, Harden was visibly out of shape last season, but he looks damn good now! From a statistical standpoint, Harden averaged just 13 shots per game last season, which was his lowest output in a literal decade.
This season, Harden looks to be in much better shape, which has helped him become more aggressive with the ball in his hand. Harden is hosting 18.5 shots per game through his first four contests while hitting the over in this 22.5 number during three of them.
His only blip was shockingly against the woeful Spurs, who play zero defense and try fast. It makes no sense, but everyone has a dud sometimes. Toronto is tough, defensively, but Harden is a half-court mastermind and he’ll eclipse this number again this evening.
Mike Conley Over 6.5 Assists (-140, PointsBet)
Conley is averaging over four more potential assists per game than last season, while playing a full complement of minutes. He’s hit this number in every game and now he’ll get a rematch with the fast-paced, defensiveness Rockets. This number is a full assist too low.
Free NFL Player Prop Pick: Thursday Night Football
Leonard Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
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Fournette’s number is at least two yards higher on other sportsbooks right now. Teams are rushing against Baltimore at just the 27th highest rate, but I think that data is skewed due to some of those teams being run-scripted out of second-half comebacks against the Ravens.
Thus, Baltimore yields the third-highest successful rushing play percentage, while also a top-5 worst unit in the league against gap schemes. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to establish much of any ground game this year, but they are at least a gap team – running the ninth-most gap-run designed plays in the NFL. As long as Tampa Bay isn’t run-scripted out AGAIN, Lenny should be heavily involved, and I like him to easily exceed this number.