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Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Will Warriors Slam The Door On Dallas Tonight?

Derek Farnsworth Thu 5/26 8:35am PT
Stephen Curry and the Warriors could have some DFS GPP value on Thursday.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his Game 5 prediction for the Warriors vs. Mavericks on Thursday, May 26. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Running Totals 

After three winning nights in a row, dare I say we are on a heater? On top of the betting picks performing well, we are in good shape in both of our series bets. The Celtics picked up a huge win on the road in Game 5. We saw by far the most competitive first three quarters of the series, but the Heat forgot to show up in the fourth quarter. The Celtics have the more balanced team and the statistics have been in their favor this series. With a win on Wednesday night, they now return home with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. 

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors: Expert Pick And Prediction

Series: 3-1, Golden State

Every once in a while, betting on a game feels too easy. That’s how Game 4 was in this series. The Mavericks didn’t fight their way back and beat the Suns in seven games just to get swept by the Warriors in the next round. The team is full of proud players and Jason Kidd had everyone ready to go right at tip-off. And for the first time all series, the Mavericks shot the ball well from the three-point line. While I don’t expect this to happen, the Mavericks could really steal all of the momentum with a win tonight. 

If we look at the stats from the series, the Warriors have dominated the boards and have shot the ball better than the Mavericks. As has been the case all postseason, Dallas has taken better care of the ball and has made more three-pointers than their opponent. As the pressure ratchets up, it will be interesting to see how everyone not-named Luka plays for the Mavericks. Golden State has one of the biggest home-court advantages in basketball and are listed as sizable favorites for this one. 

At the end of the day, I have to back the Warriors in this one. I don’t love the 7-point spread, because it brings a Mavericks’ backdoor cover into play, but I could see the Warriors running away with this one if they get off to a good start. They were my pick to win the series and they have yet to lose a game at home in the playoffs.