2022 NFL Futures Props: Who Will Lead The League In Receiving Yards?
Sports betting expert Justin Carlucci analyzes NFL futures odds and shares his favorite picks and values to have the most receiving yards for the upcoming season. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting now!
The NFL season will be here before we now it!
C’mon, now. I know you’re either on your 17th best-ball draft of the month, waiting for your favorite old-school, hardcopy season-long magazine (that you’ve been loyal to for 20 years, for live drafts in your buddy’s basement) to appear on the shelf of your local grocery store, or you’re following beat writers on Twitter to see which rookies are generating the buzz in workouts!
At the minimum, you’re circling a few games on the 2022 schedule. Regardless, it’s never too early to lock in a few NFL futures picks during the midst of the offseason chaos, while the odds are in your favor.
Free NFL Futures Props Picks For 2022: Most Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
Current Odds: +1000, Caesars Sportsbook
Jefferson is an elite talent, who quickly asserted himself as an alpha receiver in the NFL. He earned a rapid ascension toward the top of fantasy football draft boards last season. It’s no shock that Jefferson is one of the biggest favorites to do the most damage through the air in 2022.
Jefferson, during the regular season, led the league total air yards, air-yard market share and air yards per game. Despite being in a run-heavy Vikings’ scheme, Jefferson ranked fifth in targets and third in target-market share.
He’s a volume hog and is essentially matchup proof. In fact, only Cooper Kupp’s historic season stood in the way of Jefferson leading the NFL in receiving yards last year.
Of course, there are so many variables and so much volatility to account for every season. However, four of Jefferson’s seven 100-yard games came within his division in 2021 and I think a few offseason changes (or non-changes) to NFC North rivals (who are twice on his schedule) bode well for this bet.
In a perfect world, the Viking would play ahead, or in a neutral script, and run Dalvin Cook into the ground (or until he gets injured) every game. But as long as the competition is good enough, Minnesota will have to throw the ball to some capacity.
The return of Aaron Rodgers to Green Bay (thank heavens that annoying saga is over) will certainly keep the pressure on Cousins and the Minnesota offense twice more per year.
The Detroit Lions, which spent many assets on high-profile rookies in this year’s draft, also got objectively better during the offseason. These personnel decisions in NFC North lessen the risk of potential blowouts, or situations, where Jefferson could be scripted out of during 4 of the Vikings’ 17 games. This matters.
Barring injury, Jefferson should at the bare minimum, give you a punters’ chance to lead the league in receiving come Week 18 – but the odds should be emphatically better than that! In fact, he’s my favorite pick to do it.
Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
Current Odds: +1800, Caesars Sportsbook
It’s already time to buy back into Diggs to lead the league in receiving yards in 2022 – especially at the generous odds that Caesars put on the board for us.
I can’t pretend to be the smartest guy in the room. Maybe after a few cocktails…But let’s use our critical thinking skills for second and highlight a few trends that we know about the Bills’ offense heading into the new season:
- Lost Emmanuel Sanders to FA
- (Likely) losing Cole Beasley to FA
- They throw the ball, a lot (lol)
- Has arguably the best QB in football
Can we say, “more volume?” It seems like a crazy man’s sentiment, after Diggs racked up a modest 164 targets (9.6 per game) in 2021. But the window is cracked for more work with only Gabe Davis (who don’t get me wrong, I like, a lot) slotted to work opposite of him.
Well, maybe I am crazy…
But Diggs ranked second in the NFL in total air yards and air-yards per game (amongst those with at least 3 games played) last year.
We’re not even two years removed from his 1,500-yard season during his first rodeo in Buffalo with Josh Allen.
Somehow, it almost felt like a failure of a 2021 for Diggs from a fantasy-football perspective. A measly 1,200 yards? Pshhhhh, trashhhhh (sarcasm). Well, it’s time to get back on the saddle. At those odds Caesars posted, you can sign me up!
CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
Current Odds: +2500, Caesars Sportsbook
Ah, Caesars, the gift that keeps giving! More generous odds. A handful of Dallas-related moves and injuries make this quite an appealing investment at a great price.
Amari Cooper is GONE! Cooper (who is quietly working on a HOF-worthy career – I know, weird, right?) was dealt to the Cleveland Browns. It’s a premature, borderline hot take, but if he plays another 6-8 years, Cooper could be headed to Canton eventually.
It looks like Dallas sure has a ton of faith in Micahel Gallup, who presents a ton of upside, but is a frequent visitor of the injury report. There absolutely has to be an uptick in volume for Lamb this season and I’ll be reaching for him in my drafts over the summer.
Lamb saw double-digit targets in only four games last season. During those contests, he averaged just a tick over 100 yards-per game. Lamb should demand much more in 2022. He is a true alpha receiver, and I think the Cooper trade solidifies the organization’s feelings about him solely leading this receiving core.
In addition to Cooper leaving town, former free agent Cedrick Wilson hopped on a jet to South Beach and stayed with the Dolphins. Wilson developed into a nice possession receiver for the Cowboys and could be the key piece of the Dolphins’ offense nobody is talking about.
Michael Gallup, rehabbing a torn ACL, may not be ready for Week 1. If early reports are comfortable enough “airing that out” (dad joke), it could be a real possibility that Gallup doesn’t play the opener, or is on a pitch count early in the year.
Forget Gallup. Cooper and Wilson, who combined for exactly 30% of the Cowboys’ target-market share last season, are objectively out of the picture. There’s a huge void to fill and it can’t be only Tony Pollard and the tight ends doing so.
The Cowboys brought in James Washington, the former second-round pick of the Steelers. He’s a deep-threat and I don’t think his potential has been met. I’d even label him as a late-round fantasy football (or best ball) sleeper this year.
But my best guess is Washington commands the equivalent of Wilson’s 2021 target MS, still leaving a huge chunk up for grabs via Cooper’s departure.
Lamb is more of a longer-shot, but the stars seem to be aligned for a larger workload and an all-pro type of season. He’s my favorite value on the board.