Lunch w/ Luuch: NFL Player Props Picks That Could Eat (11/11/22)
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of some NFL player props picks for this weekend!
We’re officially well over the halfway mark of the NFL regular season! We have some decent data to work with, a ton of moving parts and always continuous drama in this crazy league.
Let’s cut to the chase and find some winners for Week 10.
Free NFL Player Props Picks For Week 10
Houston is not only committed to the run, but committed to Pierce being a work-horse tailback. The volume for him has been incredible since he has taken the reigns of the backfield. The Texans rank fourth in successful rushing plays, while the Giants are bottom-10 in the league in that department, while also ranking bottom-10 against both gap and zone schemes. Houston mixes it up and uses both styles of blocking, while the G-Men are third-worst in yards before contact and eighth in yielding runs of 10+ yards. For what it’s worth, Carty’s Blitz system has Pierce for over a buck on the ground.
- Foster Moreau Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-113, Caesars)
While I’ve never been a huge Carr guy, Waller and Renfrow being inactive is a huge deal. There isn’t a ton of data this season when Waller and Renfrow have missed a game together, but both of them make up for 31% of LV’s target market share. Moreau has been commanding 15% of it, himself, while he has seen that number climb slightly higher when Waller has missed time. Indy yields the sixth-highest percentage of targets to TE’s at the fourth-easiest success rate.
- Davante Adams Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
It seems dirty doubling down on the Raiders, but missing Waller and Renfrow matters the most. Adams is fresh off a 17-target game. Indy is very good at keeping the ball out of receivers’ hands, but Carr has shown time after time that he will force it to Adams. This is a volume play, double-digit volume should get Adams over this number. Carty’s system has Carr throwing for 289 yards and I would imagine Adams and Moreau HAVE to be a big factor on Sunday.
- Derrick Henry Over 106.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
I could simply say this is a play on volume and not have to explain myself anymore. The King is back taking on an unreal workload to carry Tennessee yet again. The Broncos appear to be a run-funnel type defense, who actually rank bottom third in the league in rush DVOA and first against the pass. Lucky for us, the Titans don’t have any good receivers (outside of Treylon Burks on his way back) or an offensive coordinator that knows how to scheme anybody open. The Broncos yield the sixth-most average yards gained before contact, which sets up poorly for anyone on Earth trying to stop #22.