Tides’ Takes – PGA Live Betting: John Deere Classic

Our PGA expert had JT Poston to win outright prior to Sunday. Here's how to handle the final round of the John Deere Classic.
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ScoresAndOdds PGA analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and live betting picks for Round 4 of the John Deere Classic.

If you followed my picks for this year’s John Deere Classic, you should be holding a J.T. Poston ticket at or around 45-1. He is going into Sunday with a three-shot lead.

There are three golfers tied for second at -16. Those golfers are Denny McCarthy, Scott Stallings and Emiliano Grillo. So, what should you do if you are sitting in that desirable catbird seat going into tomorrow? 

You could take the angle of “I’m not going to hedge at all, because I truly feel like he is going to win this tournament,” or you could take a shot at one or two of the players you like that are chasing him. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, JT Poston is -115 to win this tournament. If you didn’t bet him pre-tournament, I actually think that is pretty good value. If you do have a ticket on Poston, let’s go over the options we can take to hedge our bet and guarantee some profit.  

Like I said in my preview article, I really considered adding Denny McCarthy to my betting card, and I am kicking myself for not doing it now that he sits only three shots back going into the round. 

He now sits at +500 to win the tournament and he is my favorite hedge bet of all the players that are currently sitting at T2.  McCarthy has the putting skills to put up an extremely low round and steal this title from Poston. 

With Stallings sitting at +550, and Grillo sitting at +650, those odds makes me like the number on McCarthy even more. 

Grillo is putting far better than he does pretty much every week and I feel like I can’t trust him during a final round, despite his elite ball striking.

Stallings has had a bit of career resurgence and is in the best shape of his life. I still question his ceiling, as he has the tendency to let rounds really get away from him. I will be rooting for him, but not with my wallet. Now, let’s go over some finishing placement bets to round out our card for tomorrow’s final round. 

John Deere Classic: Free PGA Live Betting Picks For Round 4

Cam Davis Top 10 Finish

Cam Davis was a very popular pick in the industry as an outright play, and although I didn’t bet him, I am going to get exposure to him for tomorrow. 

He currently sits in a tie for 10th and shot -6 on yesterday.  What I like about his play this week, is that he has only gained .54 strokes over the first three rounds, but we saw what he can do when he gets the putter gong, like we did during round 3 when he gained 1.84 strokes on the greens. 

We’ve seen the floor he possesses on this course when he loses strokes putting, such as in rounds one and two, and we see the ceiling he has when he gets the flatstick rolling. I think there is an element of safety with him on this very scorable golf course. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 5 Finish

In my opinion, Bezuidenhout is the best overall player in the top of this tournament. He has a true ability to avoid big mistakes and birdies the holes that he should. 

He currently sits two shots back of a top-5 finish, so he will need a little bit of help from the field, but I don’t have a ton of faith in guys like Grillo, Stallings, Tarren and Naegel. 

There is a lot of inexperience and inconsistent play between him and a top 5.  His putter is outperforming his baseline stats over the first three rounds, but his approach and around the green game have quite poor so if he can clean that up he won’t have to lean on the putter as much.