Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: John Deere Classic
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for the 2022 John Deere Classic!
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchup, outright tournament winners and live bets!
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Free Expert PGA Picks: 2022 John Deere Classic
Welcome to this year’s John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. This tournament has been part of the PGA since 1972.
Before the breakdown of the actual course, the strength of this field should be noted. For various reasons, this field is one of the weakest fields I’ve personally seen. Now, with Daniel Berger withdrawn, there are no golfers in the top-50 of the World Golf Rankings. Yikes!
Adam Hadwin is the current betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Yes, you read that correctly.
With many golfers gearing up for the Scottish and British Opens, this field is essentially an alternate-field event. In my opinion, I like betting softer-field events like this, since you can get some real long shot numbers on guys that can actually win. There have been 23 first time winners at this course since 1972.
Now let’s breakdown TPC Deere Run. The course plays as a par 71, with a yardage of 7,289 yards. The greens are bentgrass. The greens are 5,500 square feet on average (slightly smaller than tour average).
There are 76 bunkers and three water hazards to contend with. Since last year, the course has done a complete overhaul of its sand bunkers, which may lead to more difficult sand saves.
However, due to this golf course being on the much easier side of scoring, I am not weighing that very heavily.
TPC Deere Run has allowed the most birdies of any course dating back to the year 2000. Strokes-gained approach and strokes-gained putting are paramount to success at this birdie fest.
When rating your golfers, I would look at ones that excel from 125-175 yards. Historically, data shows that driving accuracy was a much bigger factor rather than driving distance to past winners.
You may remember that Bryson DeChambeau won this event, but that was before he bulked up. He used to be much shorter and accurate off the tee. Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson have had tremendous success at this course, if that helps you find a winning profile. In fact, 12-straight winners have been -18 or better, and the cut line tends to be around -2 or -3. Wedges and short irons, combined with a hot putter, are the keys to success.
Outright PGA Betting Picks – 2022 John Deere Classic
I won’t be betting the top of the board this week. I will be starting my betting card at (or around) 40-1.
If you want to bet someone higher on the board, my pick would be Denny McCarthy at 22-1 odds. He is one of, if not the best putter on tour. This event will be a lot about who gets hot with the flatstick from 5-10 feet.
McCarthy is more than capable of making that happen. In the last 24 rounds, he has gained the second most strokes per round. J.T. Poston ranks number one. Personally I just can’t bet him at this short of a number, but I highly considered it and felt like I should mention him for those who don’t want to go too far down the betting board.
- J.T Poston (45-1, DraftKings)
As I mentioned above, J.T. Poston ranks number one in the field in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. He is coming off his best strokes-gained approach of his entire career. Poston also has a very reliable putter, which are two facets of the game that are the most important at this course. Remember, I am looking for an outright winner for this pick. Poston has three top-10 finishes this season, including a T2 last week at the Travelers Championship. He won the Wyndham Championship in the 2018-19 season. The Wyndham is another course that rewards accurate drivers, which also trends toward a birdie-fest. This course fits Poston’s game perfectly and I am betting on the current form. I will also bet on Poston to finish in the top-10 at +600.
- Adam Svensson (55-1, DraftKings)
Svensson was a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour –including twice in 2021. I only cite Korn Ferry success since this event is just a little stronger than an upper-tier tournament of its own. He is coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes at the Travelers and the RBC Canadian Open. Svensson has gained strokes with the putter in five-straight weeks, which were all on bentgrass, just like this tournament. In the last eight weeks, Svensson is in the top 15 in strokes-gained off-the-tee, approach and tee-to-green. He checks all of the boxes for a breakout win, if he can get the putter hot again. In the 2018-19 season, Svensson played this event and finished in the top 20. I really like the recent form and he is going to be hungry for a win and the two-year fully exempt status, which is gained from taking home the title. Also making a bet on Svensson to finish top 10 at +600.
Head to Head Matchups – 2022 John Deere Classic
- Adam Svensson (-120, DraftKings) vs Nate Lashley
Anytime I make an outright bet, I want to get exposure on that player in the head-to-head markets as well. Lashley is coming off a top-25 finish at the Travelers last week, but he is not a consistent golfer by any stretch of the imagination. Svensson is going into this week with five-straight cuts made and is playing tremendous golf. Even if Lashley has a spike round, Svensson should be able to claw his way back throughout the tournament.
- Doug Ghim (-120, DraftKings) vs Mark Hubbard
I strongly considered adding Doug Ghim to my outright card but will pass and take him in a head-to head-matchup against Mark Hubbard. Ghim is an outstanding ball striker and should be pin-seeking throughout this tournament. It’s his putter that frequently lets him down. Hubbard is a true grinder on Tour, who lost his fully exempt status, and he has been playing a lot on the Korn Ferry Tour this season. I am not convinced he can make enough birdies to hang with Ghim this week. There is value on Ghim, even with the -120 you have to lay. Adding a bet on Doug Ghim to finish top 20 at +240.