Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: Sanderson Farms Championship
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and pga betting picks for this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship!
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchup, outright tournament winners, and live bets! Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.
2022 Sanderson Farms Championship: Course Breakdown
After some fun viewing of The Presidents Cup, the Tour heads to Jackson, Mississippi, where the field will tackle the Country Club of Jackson.
This is the ninth-straight season this event has been held at this course, so we will have some good data to go by this week. As is typical during the “swing season,” this course should be on the easier side. On top of that, the field is usually on the weaker end of the spectrum.
We will see that again this year, as there is only one player inside the top-35 of the OWGR. The Country Club of Jackson is a traditional tree-lined course that has had non-penal rough in recent years. The Bermuda greens do tend to run faster than tour average. The course is a traditional par-72 that plays 7,461 yards and is Bermuda grass throughout the entirety of the course.
Another course fact I wanted to point out is that there are very few hazards – only 56 sand bunkers on the entire course and there are only five holes where water comes into play. This really sets up for some scoring.
Every season, since 2015, the winning score is somewhere between 18-22 under par. If you want my opinion, we should see the winning score better than -20, assuming the weather and wind are fair.
Defending champion Sam Burns will be attending this event, along with only two other Presidents Cup participants. (Sebastian Munoz and Christiaan Bezuidenhout). Burns is currently the betting favorite at 11-1. The next closest odds sit at 20-1 for Sahith Theegala.
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Free 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Picks
Taylor Montgomery (30-1, DraftKings)
I was not surprised to see his odds this low after his third-place performance at the Fortinet. If you haven’t heard of Montgomery, he is in his rookie season on the PGA Tour, but was an absolute stud on the KFT. He finished with seven top-10’s across his last nine events.
Montgomery is a great all-around player that will unleash his talents all season and I predict he will come out on top at some point. I don’t have a crystal ball, unfortunately, as exactly when that will happen, but I love his chances this week.
Computer models across the betting community give him the second-highest chance of winning this week behind only Sam Burns. For what it’s worth, I don’t think Burns comes into this week with much motivated. Montgomery has the ability with the putter that the winner will need this week. Expect another great finish from Montgomery this week and let’s hope he can cross the finish line as the winner.
Davis Riley (40-1, PointsBet)
Davis Riley is a Mississippi native, who played his college golf in Alabama. He should feel right at home playing these Bermuda greens. He missed the cut at the Fortinet due to his horrendous around-the-green game.
That being said, he actually gained off the tee and with his approach. Riley is one of the better all-around players in the field, and despite his poor course history at this event, I am still willing to take a shot with him. He ranks inside the top-25 in several important statistical strokes-gained categories, including, SG off the tee, SG approach, SG total on easy scoring conditions, and SG tee to green on Bermuda grass courses.
Riley really does check all the boxes. That being said, don’t chase this number, there seems to be a lot of chatter on him this week across the betting community, so if that number gets steamed up, take a pass on him. The last thing you want to do, as a bettor, is chase a bad number.
Andrew Putnam (75-1, FanDuel)
Andrew Putnam has gained strokes with the putter in each of his last six starts. He has also gained strokes, overall, in five-straight starts.
This tournament is wide open and I want the volatility which someone like Putnam provides. He is not overly long with his driver, but you don’t need to be the longest driver on this course.
Ryan Armour has won this tournament in the past, if that makes you feel better about that take! Putnam is very accurate with his driver and shouldn’t play himself out of the tournament. He has made five-straight cuts. Another note is that strokes-gained approach doesn’t seem to make a gigantic difference at this course, which is not typical at most PGA layouts. The super fast greens will be a neutralizing factor when it comes to iron play. That makes me feel more comfortable taking Putnam, who we are leaning on to find the hot putter.
2022 Sanderson Farms Championship: Head to Head Matchup Pick
Wyndham Clark over Harris English (-120, DraftKings)
This will probably be the biggest bet I’ll make this week and I’ll be putting a full unit on this wager. Clark is consistently gaining strokes off the tee. On the other side, English had lost strokes off the tee in eight-straight events up until last week, where he gained a puny .29 off the tee. Despite the fact English finished T9 last week at the Fortinet, I don’t think he has his game back after dealing with an injury for most of last season. This is a great course for Clark and I really considered him as an outright wager. He will be a wager for me in the top-20 market.
Tides’ Official Betting Card
- Taylor Montgomery 30-1 (DraftKings, .25 Units)
- Davis Riley 40-1 (PointsBet, .25 Units)
- Andrew Putnam 75-1 (FanDuel, .25 units)
- Wyndham Clark top-20 +275 (DraftKings, .5 units)
- Wyndham Clark over Harris English -120 (DraftKings, 1 unit)
- Total Units in play this week : 2.25 units
- Season Total Results : -2.00 units.