Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: Shriners Children’s Open
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and pga betting picks for this week’s Shriners Children’s Open
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchup, outright tournament winners, and live bets! Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.
Congratulations to Mackenzie Hughes, who edged out Sepp Straka in a playoff to take home his second PGA Tour title last week. Andrew Putnam was tied for the lead after the first round, but couldn’t find any momentum across the next three. Taylor Montgomery and Davis Riley both looked solid, but never reached the top of the leaderboard.
Fortunately, we were able to cash our full-unit play (Clark over English) in the head-to-head market. Overall, we ended up only -.25 units on the week. That is why I try to push responsible wagering in golf – it’s quite difficult to hit an outright wager!
TPC Summerlin – Course Breakdown
This week the PGA tour heads to TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada, for the Shriners Children’s Open.
TPC Summerlin had a complete makeover of its greens and fairways. The grass is now fully bentgrass and this is the first look at this new golf course. Thus, I don’t really think that changes much of anything when attempting to handicap this event.
As we’ve seen over and over, during the fall swing, TPC Summerlin will be very scorable. It was the sixth-easiest course on the Tour last season. The rough is not penal and there is little to no trouble off the tee. To say this course is pretty simple would be an understatement.
The average winning score at this course over the last ten seasons is -22. TPC Summerlin is a par-71, 7,255 yards layout. However, keep in mind that this course is played at altitude, so in reality, it will play shorter than that. This will be all about short irons and the flat stick once again. I am going to try and find golfers that excel from 125-175 yards, as I think that will be the most important shot this week.
Patrick Cantlay is currently the betting favorite at 7-1. While I expect he does well, I simply can’t get behind that small of a number. Sungae Im is next at 12-1 and is the defending champion. Again, I’m sure he does well, but my money will be elsewhere this week. Let’s take a look at where my money is going this week.
Free PGA Picks – 2022 Children’s Shriners Open
Taylor Montgomery (37-1, FanDuel)
I wrote him up last week and I am going to go right back to him. Montgomery was a top-10 machine on the Korn Ferry Tour and is continuing that trend in his rookie season on the PGA Tour. He has gained with the putter in his last two starts, but the thing that has me really intrigued with him, is that his approach play has been pedestrian at best.
Montgomery only gained .51 with his approach play last week and still finished T9. If he can get his irons working this week, he should really catapult to the top of the leaderboard. Montgomery is one of the most talented players in this weak field.
Cam Davis (40-1, BetMGM)
He seems to be the darling of the week when it comes to the outright market. Usually, I don’t want to be part of the crowd, as I try to be a little more unique with my picks. However, I am fully buying into Davis this week. This really is the perfect setup for him. His ability to make birdies and eagles is a perfect fit for this course.
Davis can be wild off the tee, but that won’t really matter this week. He gained six strokes of ball striking at this course last year and will look to build on that. Davis has strong wedge skills and positive bentgrass splits. The number on him is dropping fast, so if you don’t want to miss out on him, make sure not to wait until the last minute. The odds will only get worse.
J.T. Poston (65-1, DraftKings)
This bet is all about where you can bet. DraftKings has hung quite an appealing number and if you have access to it, I would take it there.
It seems like if you have one bad week, the market thinks you are all of a sudden washed. Yes, Poston looked absolutely dreadful at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but that is only one bad week.
If you go back to last season, he won the John Deere Classic and T2 at the Travelers. Those are very comps to this week’s layout. The John Deere is one of my comp courses when handicapping this event, as both courses are absolute birdie fests. Poston has the ceiling to win this event and we have seen him dominate weaker fields. Other books have him as low as 45-1, which I think is more appropriate.
Joel Dahmen (150-1, DraftKings)
I am going to keep this one short and sweet, because I don’t want to try and tell you to bet Joel Dahmen, I just always want to be transparent with whom I am betting.
Dahmen has been bad, going all the way back to the middle of last season, but he did show a little bit of life last week with a T13 finish.
Some books have him as low as 80-1, but DraftKings has him at 150-1, which I feel is too good of a number not to sprinkle a smaller than usual wager on. A standard bet for me on an outright is .25u, but for this Dahmen wager, I am going with .10u.
Head to Head Matchup Picks
Mark Hubbard over Matthew NeSmith (-110, DraftKings)
We were saved last week with the head-to-head play I gave out. Let’s hope I can give out another winning pick this week. Mark Hubbard didn’t have a very good end of the season, but did well in weaker-field events.
Hubbard has gained on approach in 10 of his last 11 measured events and remains a steady player. NeSmith is much more volatile and can get very cold with his putting and approach game. Hubbard’s consistency should reign supreme in this matchup and I think there is +EV on this wager. Hubbard is a full unit play for me this week in this matchup.
Official PGA Betting Card This Week
- Taylor Montgomery .25u (37-1, FanDuel)
- Cam Davis .25u (40-1, BetMGM)
- J.T. Poston .25u (65-1, DraftKings)
- Joel Dahmen .10u (150-1, DraftKings)
- Mark Hubbard over Matthew NeSmith 1u (-110, DraftKings)
- J.T. Poston top-20, .5u (+260, DraftKings)
- Mark Hubbard top-20, .5u (+300, DraftKings)
- Total units in play this week : 2.85u
- Season Total Results : -2.25u