Super Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rams vs. Bengals Preview

With 21 weekends of NFL football in the rear-view mirror (plus the Pro Bowl), we have just one game left in the 2021-22 season: the Super Bowl. It’s the biggest game in professional sports, standing alone each year as the most-watched and most heavily-bet contest in the United States. 

Everyone wants a part of Super Bowl Sunday, whether it be via a $10 square in an office pool or a $4.5 million wager. Since it’s one of the only NFL games that all fans and fair-weathers flock to each year, the majority of viewers want some piece of action so they can invest themselves in the game a little more. And, with sports betting now legal in over half the country, it’s never been easier to place a wager on the spread, moneyline, or over/under of the big game. 

Super Bowl Odds

Odds are from PointsBet

I’ve covered early lines and best bets for each week of NFL action this entire season, and it’s been quite the wild ride. We had the Bengals on every step of their theatrical run through the AFC, and we nailed every Rams game on their way to NFC glory. All said, we went 6-3 on Divisional Round bets and 2-0 on our picks against the spread in the Conference Championships. Hell, we even told you to buy LA a point last weekend to make it Rams -2.5 over the 49ers, and sure enough, LA won by a field goal. Let’s just say our confidence level is pretty high right now. 

But there’s more work to be done. The Super Bowl is the mecca of American sports, and the pinnacle of the sports betting industry. Let’s finish this season strong, and give ourselves a Super-sized stimulus check in the form of a sportsbook payout. Let’s do this, RotoGrinders Nation, or as Mary J. Blige will be spitting at halftime, “Come on, everybody, get on up!”

Bengals vs. Rams Pick Against The Spread

The Rams were my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but admittedly I had the Bills ultimately hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Now I’m convinced LA will be the second-consecutive franchise to win it all on its home turf, bringing the Rams organization its second Super Bowl victory and first ever since moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles. 

Matthew Stafford, the longtime Lion who just turned 34 years old on Monday, has made his connection with All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp seem effortless, and LA’s defense has looked as good as ever with veteran pass-rusher Von Miller lining up opposite four-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Pretty much all season, this squad has looked like the best in football from top to bottom. 

However, it’s not going to be that easy. Spreads always complicate matters in primetime games, especially Super Bowls. If you’re new to this, remember one very important fact: with spreads, we aren’t simply betting who we think will win. We are betting who we think will win or lose by the fixed amount set by oddsmakers and sportsbooks. 

And, quite frankly, I can’t bet against the Bengals if they’re getting 4.5 points. Second-year stud QB Joe Burrow has the talent, confidence, and swagger to continually win massive games—games in which everyone counted out the Bengals. With a QB-WR rapport similar to Stafford-Kupp, Burrow and former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase have picked up where they left off as NCAA national champions. Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage this season, and Chase won Offensive Rookie of the Year after obliterating the rookie receiving records previously set in 2020 by Justin Jefferson (also their college teammate). 

The Bengals may not win it all this Sunday, but they’re damn well going to battle from start to finish. I just don’t see a squad that just beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium suddenly folding and getting smoked in LA. Sure, you could point to the Rams’ dominant defense, and Cincy’s inferior offensive line that made Burrow the most-sacked QB this season. But the 2020 No. 1 pick has succeeded despite all the sacks. Through all the pressure, and all the hits and knock-downs, he’s been the one lighting victory cigars through every step of the postseason. 

Go buy two or three points and give the Bengals some room for error if you need extra insurance. You can get Cincy +6.5 at -145, or +7.5 at -191. That +7.5 bet is actually a phenomenal value for a conservative bettor who likes winning but doesn’t need a huge payout—you’re winning over $305 on a $200 bet if Cincy wins, or loses by no more than a touchdown and extra point. 

Personally, I’m more than happy just betting $100 on the Bengals +4.5. They won on last-second field goals in the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds, and they lost by five or more points just three times all season. They have gone 13-7 against the spread since the start of the 2021 campaign, while LA is just 10-10 ATS in that span. The Rams have gone 7-3 straight up at home, and an NFL-best 15-5 straight up across the regular season and playoffs, but they have rewarded their spread bettors just 50 percent of the time. Grab LA for the moneyline W, but go with Cincy and the points if you’re betting the spread. 

• PREDICTION: Rams win outright
• PICK ATS: Bengals +4.5

Best Over/Under Bet

I’m always ambivalent with primetime and playoff over/unders, even more so on Super Bowl Sunday. We could have an amazing offensive battle with five touchdowns and three field goals, and still the OVER bettors would be sad at the end of the game if 49 points were not scored. That’s why most of the time, I only bet modified totals in Same Game Parlays on PointsBet. In my SGP column, I bought five points on a modified total and bet the OVER on 43.5. That way, the OVER hits and I win as long as we get those five TDs and three field goals (or six touchdowns and one field goal). You just can’t feel safe betting a book’s fixed total in such a major game, especially when one team has such an incredible defense but both squads ranked in the top eight in scoring this season (Rams: 27.2 ppg, 6^th; Bengals: 26.6 ppg, 8^th). 

With a gun to my head (and I don’t know why there would be a gun to my head, but just saying), I’m probably going with the UNDER of 48.5. I know I will be in the minority here, with recency bias combined with the fact that Super Bowls in the passing era more often than not come packed with a lot of offense. Cincy has scored 26 or more points in two of three postseason games, while the Rams have reached at least 30 points in two of three. So, I’ve gotta be nuts, right?

Wrong. I’m going with the smartest play here—there’s a gun to my head, after all—and there are plenty of reasons to stay away from the OVER that so many fair-weathers will be betting. For starters, the UNDER has hit in the last three Super Bowls. Oddsmakers and handicappers tend to shoot high when setting the total, as they know people will be betting with their hearts and not their heads, and hoping for lots of points. People who aren’t regular bettors hate rooting for the UNDER. But people who aren’t regular bettors also love losing money on the Super Bowl. 

Here’s the most important factor to analyze when picking the over/under: the OVER has hit in just two of Cincy’s 10 away games since the start of the 2021 NFL season. And, the OVER is just 4-6 in the Rams’ home games! Things aren’t much better for OVER bettors if you look at each team’s full seasons: the OVER was 10-9-1 in LA’s 20 games leading to this weekend, and 8-12 in Cincy’s games. 

It can be nerve-wracking to bet the UNDER in a big game, and then keep rooting for that number to never be reached. But it’s much better than betting on a 50-burger and never getting there. LA’s defense is solid, and I don’t think it will surrender more than a few touchdowns. I’m leaning towards this one totaling about 46 points—just enough to entertain the masses who only like offense, while also securing the W for the “Savvy Bettors Club.” 

• PICK: Under 48.5