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Week 1 Staff Best Bets: Thursday Night Football – Rams vs. Bills

ScoresAndOdds Staff Thu 9/8 5:25am PT
Our NFL experts have free picks for Thursday's 2022 season opening game between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams
Image Credit: Imagn

Many of our ScoresAndOdds NFL experts will bring you free betting picks each week for the prime time Thursday Night Football game!

We’re kicking off the 2022 NFL season with a bang! The defending Super Bowl champions will host the Buffalo Bills tonight. Both teams have high aspirations for the 2022 season.

Let’s hear from some of our SAO betting experts and get some free picks for Thursday!

Thursday Night Football – Week 1: Free Bills vs. Rams Betting Picks

First Touchdown Scorer – Allen Robinson (+1000) and Dawson Knox (+1400)

I don’t have a strong lean on the spread or total, so I’ll throw a couple of shots at the first touchdown scorer. I’ll start with Allen Robinson, who is making his first start with the Rams. You could argue that this is his first start in his career with a good quarterback under center. I like the idea of Sean McVay welcoming him to the team by calling his number the first time the Rams get into the red zone. I’ll also add Dawson Knox, because tight ends love to score the first touchdown of these primetime games. The Rams secondary will be super focused on Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, so hopefully something can open up for Knox over the middle. These are small unit plays, but should provide some instant sweat on Thursday night.

Bills/Rams 1H Under 26.5

This is a lofty total for a Week 1 game, especially in this day and age where regular starters see little to no preseason action. Expect the teams to play it close to the vest early, before the game opens up in the second half. I lean toward the under for the game as well, but I really like the game to go under the total in the first half. While these teams are very good offensively, it’s not like they are woeful defensively, either.

Buffalo Bills -2

You are typically not going to do well betting road favorites in the NFL constantly. However, this being the first game of the season could neutralize some of those normal home advantages that occur during the grind of a full season. Also, Buffalo was 3-2 last season as road favorites, so they can handle the role. In fact they are 8-5 as road favorites since Josh Allen arrived. I think there is a Super Bowl hangover for the Rams and I feel like the Bills are the better all-around team regardless.

Gabe Davis Over 55.5 Receiving Yards

I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but I also think this line on BetMGM is just a bit too low. There is a huge void to fill in terms of target market share between the departures of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. Jalen Ramsey doesn’t always follow a receiver, but he’ll spend more time on Stefon Diggs and I think Davis is an early-season winner for us.

Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receptions

Buffalo travels to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a matchup of two teams that ranked top 10 in pace last season. Diggs averaged 9.6 targets per game and just over 6 receptions per game last season, hauling in at least 6 receptions in 10 of 17 contests. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders have departed, elevating Gabe Davis to WR2 with Isaiah Mckenzie and Jamison Crowder expected to fill in behind him. QB Josh Allen will likely lean on his veteran WR1 in a faced-paced game between Super Bowl contenders. I expect Diggs to easily top his season average from last season and go over 5.5 receptions in this important matchup. Check out the best current line at -115 on BetMGM!