2022 Mexico Open Preview: Odds and Golf Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Mexico Open. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Who is ready to go to Mexico?  A week after Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele captured the 2022 Zurich Classic, the PGA Tour will stop at the Mexico Championship for the first time, as the Mexico Open.  There is very little information on the tournament or its course, so this should be a fun wacky week.  Let’s start with the odds and chat about the field. 

2022 Mexico Open Odds

At the time of this writing — April 25th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

This is the first edition of the Mexico Open sanctioned by the PGA Tour and the first played at Vidanta Villarta.  As such, I will not list previous winners.  

Daniel Berger withdrew on Monday from the event, giving us a leaderboard that looks like the weakest field in some time on tour.  Jon Rahm stands alone as the pure class of this field followed by Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau, and ahem, Aaron Wise.  

144 golfers will start this week with the top 65 and ties making the weekend.  Rahm is the only player from the Top 10 OWGR to play in the event with only four other members from the Top 50 in attendance.  

The Mexico Championship has been played since 1944 with four native Mexicans winning the event in its history.  The last Mexican player to win was Abraham Ancer.  Other notable PGA Tour players to win the event are Stewart Cink, Troy Merritt, Jay Haas, and Jamie Lovemark.  The tournament, of course, is now played at Vidanta Villarta, instead of Chapultepec.  

Scratching your head yet?  I am.  Does Jon Rahm win?  If so, this one feels like a “If Jon Rahm wants to win, he is going to win” type of event.  

2022 Mexico Open Betting Preview

• Course: Vidanta Villarta
• Date: April 28 – May 1
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,456
• Greens: Paspalum

Vidanta Villarta will host this event for the next three years.  The Mexico Championship formerly was hosted by the Club de Golf Chapultepec.  The course is a Greg Norman design from 2015.  The course is a very unconventional Par 71 with four Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.  The course was previously a Par 73 – redesigned to meet the needs of a PGA Tour event.  

The course was lengthened by 169 yards to prepare for the event with two Par 5’s converted to Par 4’s.  Further, all 106 bunkers on the course were redone to prepare for the event.  11 holes feature water in play.  

Every blade of grass is paspalum.  So, if we were looking to find some statistical basis for a model, we could filter for golfers that perform well around the greens on this surface.  The issue with filtering for this grass type is most of the events featuring paspalum are not played by many of the upper echelon players.  For reference, Brice Garnett leads the field over his past 50 rounds on SG: Paspalum courses.  

Five of the Par 4’s are 475 yards or longer.  Two of the Par 5’s are long enough to be three-shot holes.  The course is very long – playing every bit of 7,456 yards.  Unlike Chapultepec, there is no elevation change as Vidanta is at sea level.  Driving distance should be considered as most reports seem to show that landing areas for tee shots are pretty open.  

With four Par 5’s and a very reachable Par 4 (around 300 yards), I think considering SG: Par 5, BOB%, and maybe even a sprinkle of Eagles is going to be important.  This course seems to lean towards the easier side and I am going to guess the final score is very, very low.  We will need to cull out players that can get very, very hot with irons and the flat stick.  

Should we consider sand saves?  Probably.  The course features 106 bunkers with mostly all of the greens guarded by bunkers.  Players will likely need to get up-and-down a handful of times to preserve a strong score.  This is probably worth a dash of weight when building a statistical model. 

Your guess is likely as good as mine.  This feels like another event where we can do best to limit our action and maybe take shots on longer shots in the field.  

2022 Mexico Open Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Tony Finau +2500 (DraftKings)

Normally, I shy away from the top of the odds board and focus on getting more golfers on the card.  This week, the disparity between the top of the odds board versus the lower portion makes me want to at least start with one of the shorter options.  

I cannot justify paying the premium for Jon Rahm and imagine most won’t.  I cannot fathom sportsbooks taking plenty of action on him this week.  Finau at 25/1 on DraftKings is just enough to pique my interest.  

Finau has really played well with his irons lately, ranking 4th in approach in the field.  Also, he has a win at the Puerto Rico Open – a relatively comparable course to Vidanta.

We know he is long enough so that the length of the course will not be an issue.  As ever, can he put together a solid putting week?  This will be the key.  I cannot imagine any other reason for Tony to be here besides winning the tournament.  I am content to start my card here for 1.5 units.  

Carlos Ortiz +7300 (DraftKings)

Narrative street, here.  Carlos Ortiz is an ambassador for Vidanta Villarda.  

This is important because his recent form is, well, not very good.  Missing his previous four cuts is not a good look.  That said, there is a bit of hope.  

Ortiz is in the top 40 of SG: Approach, Driver’s Distance, and SG: BOB.  Further, he finished second at Mayakoba in the fall – another relatively comparable course to Vidanta.  

I am a big buyer, at a cheap price, in Ortiz getting up for this event in his home country.  Further, this narrative comes at a big discount compared to his countryman, Abraham Ancer.  I am on the hook here for a half-unit using DraftKings Sportsbook’s boost for +300 golf odds on an outright winner.  Carlos’ brother, Alvaro, winner of the Mexico Open in 2021 (different course), is also in the field at a much steeper price.

Austin Smotherman +12500 (BetMGM)

Checking in at our third spot is our first of a couple of bombs.  Austin Smotherman, 125/1 at Unibet and other sportsbooks, checks the necessary ballstriking boxes for what I think will play well at Vidanta.

Austin Smotherman won the Mexico Open in 2018, albeit at a different course. Smotherman ranks top 20 in SG: OTT, SG: Approach, and Driving Distance.  His recent form is so-so, with 3 out of 4 made cuts in his last four starts.  Where he struggles is around the green.  

I am hopeful that this course plays as easily as it seems advertised – giving us more Smotherman birdie putts than up-and-down opportunities.  At this price tag, though, he is a good fit for a cheap card that includes Tony Finau.  I will spend ⅜ of a unit on Smotherman.  

Joseph Bramlett +20000 (DraftKings)

Finally, our last golfer on the first run will be Joe Bramlett.  For the price, Bramlett features a couple of tools in the golf bag that I think will be really helpful at the Mexico Open.  

Bramlett ranks second in the field in Driving Distance and 10th in SG: OTT.  Sitting 30th in BOB Gained, this feels like a course that might suit his ability to provide himself ample opportunities to score.  With the rough not very penal, players will likely be teeing up and letting it fly at Vidanta.  Bramlett could gain on the field off-the-tee and give himself plenty of looks at birdie.  

Given the price, Bramlett costs relatively nothing to bring a big windfall.  I am going to add him for 3/16th of a unit on DraftKings  

Mexico Open Betting Card

The best news about the Zurich Classic was that I managed to keep my exposure to the 1.5 units present in last week’s preview.  I intended on skipping the week but instead made it vacation-adjacent with only a few bets to watch.  I stopped watching the leaderboard pretty early in the week and decided to avoid any live action given the hot start from the Cantlay/Schauffele pairing.  So, all in all, very little is lost as we hope to get back in the winner’s circle in Mexico.  

With only 2.5625 wagered thus far, I have room to add a couple of golfers before Thursday or invest some in DFS.  On the contrary, I could also save a bit for next week at Wells Fargo.  Check back on Twitter on Wednesday night for my final betting card for this week.  Good luck!

2022 Profit in Units:  +87.625 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.