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Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (8/18/22)

Timothy Buell Thu 8/18 11:08am PT
Our MLB expert is backing Juan Soto's player props to hit a home run tonight.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Thursday’s MLB games.

Happy Thursday everyone! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB prop bets that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds.

Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

Patino has been in the minors for much of the season due to injuries. He shouldn’t have any restrictions in this game in terms of pitch count. In 24 innings in AAA ball this season, he has a 25% K rate and 7% walk rate. 

Projection systems have Patino as a 22% K-rate pitcher in the Major League, and in his limited time in the majors, he has landed right around that number. He will be facing a Royals’ lineup that strikes out at a 24% clip against right-handed pitchers. The top-3 projected hitters in the lineup all strikeout at over 20%. Patino is projected to throw 93 pitches in this game, so I think there is a huge edge in taking this over despite the big juice that we have to lay. 

Anibal Sanchez has given up a home run in each of his last six starts since coming back to the majors this season. This likely won’t be the matchup where that streak ends. This Soto number is far too high and I am genuinely considering betting a full unit on it. Usually I only go .25-.5 units on a home-run prop. 

Soto is one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball and already has 22 home runs on the year. Remember, home runs are down overall this year, so that is a pretty solid number. Soto should be closer to +300 in my opinion, so I think there is some really strong value in this number. 

The bottom line is: you will want to be attacking the Padres in the prop market today. They should have an absolute field day against Sanchez and I really can’t argue against taking any of them to hit a homer and/or an over bet on total bases.

Grisham is an excellent overall hitter who has tremendous batted-ball skills.  He gets lost in the shuffle, since he usually bats at the bottom of the order. He should be hitting in the seven hole today which is obviously not ideal especially at home but I think all the Padres should be getting five at bats today.