Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Wednesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Wednesday, August 3, 2022.
What an exciting trade deadline! Congratulations to the San Diego Padres on their monster blockbuster bringing in Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They have to be put in the conversation of legitimate contenders now.
I thought the Yankees made some savvy moves as well by bringing in Frankie Montas, dumping Joey Gallo who clearly wasn’t going to figure it out in New York, and swapping Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader.
We have 15 games on the MLB schedule spread all throughout the day. For the purposes of this article we will focus on the 6 games starting at 6:40 ET or later.
The only weather concern for the evening games is in St. Louis where there is a pretty decent chance of a rain delay, and even some risk for a postponement mid-game.
I looked at the unders here for this reason, but the Cubs strike out too much for me to have interest in Mikolas. Steele has been inconsistent, but he has legitimate strikeout stuff when he is on his game. I will just pass here altogether.
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Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today
Shohei Ohtani Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Let’s get started in Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels take on the Oakland Athletics. It’s Shohei Ohtani day!
Ohtani has been absolutely lights out over his last 6 starts with the exception of one bad inning against the Braves, and now he gets one of the best matchups in baseball at home. Let’s dig in.
Ohtani has sparkling numbers across the board with a 2.81 ERA, 36.4% strikeout rate, and 5.8% walk rate. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts in each of his last 6 starts, with an absolutely ridiculous strikeout rate of 45.0%.
His swinging strike rate in those games is 18.3%, and he was at a 20% swinging strike rate or better in 4 of the 6 starts. Included in his opponents for those games are low-strikeout offenses like the Astros, White Sox, and Royals. It is hard to wrap my head around just how unhittable Ohtani has been.
Today, he gets a matchup with the Oakland Athletics at home. The A’s have been among the worst offenses in baseball with an 80 wRC+ and a .274 wOBA that ranks dead last in MLB. They also strike out at a rate of 23.5%, which is the 7th highest rate in the league.
I love this matchup for Ohtani, and his recent form makes it easy to hammer the over 8.5 strikeouts today.
Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Next, we head out to San Diego, where the new-look Padres host the Colorado Rockies. It should be an exciting environment at Petco after the Padres just pulled off one of the biggest trades in MLB history.
Blake Snell makes his 13th start of the season for the Padres. Snell has been inconsistent this year with a 4.43 ERA and a bloated 12.8% walk rate. The strikeouts have still been very solid at 29.3%.
We know what we are getting with Snell at this point, plenty of strikeouts and way too many walks. He has faced this Colorado team twice this season, but both starts came in Coors Field. Snell finished with 5 strikeouts in each start, and issued a total of 10 walks. Even for Snell, that is a ton of walks. I think the shift to the much more pitcher-friendly environment will help him in that regard.
The matchup against Colorado is better than it appears since they are on the road in this one. The Rockies have just an 80 wRC+ and a .284 wOBA away from Coors field. They strike out at 22.3% on the road versus 19.2% at home. They also just placed one of their better hitters in Kris Bryant back on the injured list.
Snell should have an easier time keeping traffic off the bases with the shift to his home park. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts today.
Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Finally, we look to San Francisco, where the Giants take on the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Alex Cobb makes his 17th start of the season for the Giants.
Cobb has solid numbers on the season with a 4.06 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate.He has actually pitched quite a bit better than his ERA with both his 3.06 SIERA and 2.81 xFIP a full run better.
Cobb has had some dreadful luck this year with injuries and batted balls, but the regression has already begun. He has strung together 6 consecutive starts of at least 90 pitches while posting a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings.
The strikeouts showed back up in a big way in his last start as he fanned 11 Cubs. His start prior to that was against the Dodgers team he faces today. He managed 6 strikeouts in 5.2 innings despite allowing 8 hits and 4 runs. I am expecting a similar result today.
Obviously, the matchup is not ideal against one of the best offenses in baseball, but Cobb has flashed truly elite strikeout stuff at times this season, including in his last start. The Dodgers also added noted strikeout artist Joey Gallo at the trade deadline. Hopefully he is available and in the lineup today.
Again, I do not expect him to make it through this start unscathed, but the matchup is factored into the prop line and Cobb should go over 4.5 strikeouts today.
Eys Breakers Betting Card For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Shohei Ohtani Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-118, FanDuel)
- Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
- Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143, Caesars)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!