Lunch w/ Luuch: NFL Player Props & Picks That Could Eat This Weekend (Week 4)
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of this weekend’s NFL games, while highlighting some numbers that are popping for potential NFL player props picks!
Let’s eat! Welcome to the series, which you’ll find popping up on ScoresAndOdds a few times each month. I’ll take a look at some player props, totals and game lines that we should bring to the table.
Looks like I’m taking four “overs” this week. Time to dig in.
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Free Week 4 NFL Player Props And Picks
Derrick Henry Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Multiple Sportsbooks)
The Colts have been absolutely fantastic against the run so far this season. However, they’ve faced teams who either have no identity running the football or poor offensive-line play.
Unless this game script gets flipped on its head, offensive coordinator Todd Downing is going to stubbornly run the football into the teeth of this Indy defense. This is a massive divisional game and Henry could see his highest snap count of the year.
But maybe Downing is onto something. Since 2019 (across five games vs. Indy), Henry averages 25.6 touches per game and 4.82 yards per carry. The Titans’ offensive line had its best showing, by far, last week against the Raiders. Hmmmm…
Another factor is that Indy’s front seven is not at full strength. Linebacker Shaq Leonard will have his hands full in his first action of 2022, while gigantic defensive lineman Deforest Buckner did not practice Thursday, which is usually a strong indicator that he will not suit up on Sunday.
I’m taking this over based on volume alone for the big dog. Henry should crush this number. This is a 2-unit play for me.
Rashaad Penny Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Multiple Sportsbooks)
Might as well attack the Lions at a reasonable number when you can. My best guess is Penny sees a season-high in carries this week in a script that could be neutral, friendly game environment.
I’d love 15+ touches from Penny this week and I think it’s doable. My favorite piece of information deal with schematics. Via Gridiron IQ, Seattle runs the fifth-most zone-run plays in the league, while Detroit ranks dead last in yielding successful zone-rushing plays.
The Lions have also given up the fifth-most rushing plays of more than 10 yards in 2022 and rank poorly in many other metrics against the run. Run the damn football, Pete! We’re going to be calling him Rashaad Dollassss after this week (cringy dad joke, oops).
Marquise Brown Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Multiple Sportsbooks)
Although Jaycee Horn has been incredible in the Carolina secondary, this is just a bad line. It’s almost like Hollywood was on a news sales gig and has been ramped up to try and hit his quota over the first couple of weeks.
It’s simple. he’s getting opportunities with volume AND through the air. Brown has received more targets in each consecutive game (6, 11, 17), while also owning a stranglehold on the team’s air-yard market share at a whopping 39%. He could easily hit this over with one big play. Derek Carty’s The Blitz projection system also has him exceeding this total.
Detroit vs. Seattle Over 48 Total Points (-107, PointsBet)
This line movement has been a rollercoaster ride. It opened at 46 a little over a week ago, was bet up to 50, and is now right in the middle at 48, which is a fair number on PointsBet at -107.
This could be another “bad team” shootout. Both of these franchises are somehow ranking in the top-10 of yards per play and points per drive. I know it’s a short sample size of three weeks, but Seattle has also been getting dominated in time of possession. However, I think they’ll be able to establish the run a bit more behind Penny (a.k.a. Dollas) and have the Detroit defense on its heals a bit more.
Make no mistake (outside of Detroit’s new shiny Ferraris on the defensive line), neither of these defensive units are any good collectively. Either we’re going to see vomit-worthy football for 60 minutes, or bad football (with blown plays) and many points on the board. I’m thinking the latter.