Lunch w/ Luuch: Hunting For MLB Props That Could Eat Today
Justin Carlucci takes a bite of today’s MLB games, while highlighting some numbers that are popping for potential MLB prop picks!
What’s up ScoresAndOdds family! I hope you’re having as much as we are this MLB season. Our premium team is absolutely crushing it!
But so are all of our free article series, thanks to our many sharp writers putting in the hard work. Let’s add one more to the mix.
I figured I would keep the “food” theme going, piggybacking off or our “Food For Thought” podcast that I have with The Chief (Will Priester) over at RotoGrinders.
Anyway, if you’re on your 15-minute break looking for some toilet-scrolling, or finally opening up one of your sportsbooks to check out today’s games, let’s get things heading in the right direction.
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MLB Props Picks Ideas For Wednesday
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Lucas Giolito is a household name who turned into a well above average pitcher over the last couple of seasons. However, he’s really struggled against righties since the beginning of 2021. This year, it seems to have gotten worse, like me trying to find a ride home from a rural Pennsvlvania bar at last call because Uber doesn’t exist here.
Giolito is giving up a .349 ISO, 42% fly-ball rate and 39% hard-hit rate to righties this season. In fact, he’s giving up fly balls and hard contact to both sides, but the righties are doing the damage, who have hit 11 homers with a .318/.392/.667 line against him this year.
Giolito has given up at least two homers in three of his last four games and five of 11 starts this year. This is getting absurd, he’s yielded at least one barrel in every game, multiple barrels in four-straight appearances.
While it feels weird to target against him, the data is clearly there. Giolito throws mostly fastball-slider, which means George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. are worth exploring to hit home runs today.
New York Mets at Houston Astros
A lot to digest here, and I don’t feel like messing with the low-K Astros against Carrasco, or vice-versa. Taking a first glance at Luis Garcia, we have a little bit of respectable data this year and he’s a bit more “reverse” than he’s been in the past. Dating back to 2021, he gives up his fair share of fly balls (41%) and hard contact (40%). For whatever reason, this year, Garcia is yielding a bit larger ISO to both sides and even a slightly higher fly-ball and hard-hit rate.
Garcia’s pitch mix isn’t impressive to righties, throwing roughy 85% combined fastballs and cutters to RHB. Of course, this is screaming Pete Alonso (which isn’t a sexy pick), but our Plate IQ database has him with a .331 ISO vs RHP fastballs and a low ground-ball rate, which is an underrated metric to look at when targeting homers.
If you can find Alonso at around 3/1 on your money, I’d be interested. I don’t hate the idea of Lindor at longer odds for some pizza money if you can find them. Garcia has given up 16 barrels this year which…checks notes…..is not good.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Madison Bumgarner is pitching for the Diamondbacks today. Let me…check notes…again….he’s not good.
I feel so dirty saying that, this man was a legend coming up at such a young age for the Giants’ organization. But it’s 2022 and I have to stop living in the past, as I oftentimes do…
I hope you’re finished with your lunch, because I am going to give you the most disgusting short sample size chunk of information you probably don’t want to hear.
Over 24 measly at plate appearances against LHP this season, Jorge Alfaro owns a .455 ISO, .502 wOBA and 66% hard-hit rate. Woof. The sample-size truthers are gassing up the car and on the way to my house to come for my neck. But maybe there’s some merit here – since the beginning of 2021, Alfaro owns a respectable .238 ISO vs lefties over 100+ plate appearances.
But seriously, Alfaro has looked like a Major League hitter this year, for the first time in his career. I’m just saying, since the start of 2021, Bumgarner yields a .206 ISO, 43% fly ball and 43% hard hit. Weirder things have happened. It’s like these books don’t know what to do with big, bad Jorge Alfaro. He doesn’t even have a line listed at of 10 a.m. EST. C’mon now! Keep an eye for those odds. If they’re generous, if they even get published, he may be worth a flier, or a total-base bet.
Anyway, Bumgarner doesn’t often get obliterated, but he has yielded 10 homers to RHB this year. He also gave up 3+ barrels during three of his last five games. Luke Voit should probably hit a home run tonight. It’s also worth taking a hard look at Bumgarer’s K prop number. I am imagining it’s around 4.5. He’s striking out a putrid 10% of lefties this year and only 17% of righties. Can he get five? I don’t know, but my gut says nope.
On the flip side of this game, Mike Clevinger has thrown about 20 innings this year, and according to our data, has thrown nothing but cutters to lefties. Can this be? I’ve never, ever seen anything like this. Literally, no other pitch, Mike? Clevinger, coming off a long recovery from TJ, has faired pretty well this season and has only given up two home runs. I’d look into splashing one or two of these AZ lefties, though, such as Varsho or Marte.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Here comes Jerad Eickhoff! He’ll be brought up to start for Pittsburgh. Who knows how long he will go. He’s appeared in 13 games in 3A, making six starts and owning an ERA over 4.8. Sounds pretty Eickhoff-ish to me. He’s always had major problems against lefties over the course of his career, yielding a line of .302/.359/.559.
It kind of checks out with all of our short-sample stuff in our database, since he hasn’t pitched in the pros too much since 2021. But let me tell you, the numbers that we do have are a train wreck, which is exactly what it could be for him tonight. I would for sure dive into whatever lefty bats are in the lineup for the Cubs….Ian Happ kind of comes first to mind.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton is the guy who I want to bet there. In fact, I said blindly I would last night on the RotoGrinders Morning Grind. But Buxton’s odds are inside of +200 to homer and I don’t even know if it’s worth the risk. He’s my favorite HR call, but those odds are terrible.
Triston McKenzie gives up 50% fly balls, over 40% hard contact and throws about 60% fastball. He’s certainly prone to give up a bomb or two. Ah, baseball, McKenzie didn’t give up a homer IN Colorado last week, but prior to coming into that one, he yielded 10 over his last five starts. Find a long shot HR call here.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
Daniel Lynch has been shoving lately! But it doesn’t change the fact that he’s still giving up a ton of power against RHB. Since 2021, he yields a .193 ISO, 41% fly ball rate, 49% hard hit. Lynch has given up 9 homers to righties so far this season. Definitely want to give these LAA righty-power bats a look – such as Mike Trout and Taylor Ward. And probably the matchup-proof Shohei Ohtani.
Well, this turned into a ton of home-run hunting by default, other than a look at Bumgarner’s strikeout props.
Stay tuned for the next lunch-time edition of this article. We’ll dig into the lunch pale again to find some useful numbers to bet with!