Boston Red Sox 2022 Futures Odds and Betting Preview

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Boston Red Sox futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Claim $1100 free bet insurance with our Caesars bonus!

Boston Red Sox 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 84.5 Wins (+100)
• Best Regular Season Record: +4000
• Division Winner: +600
• To Make the Playoffs: -110
• American League Winner: +1200
• World Series Champion: +2500

In 2021, Manager Alex Cora returned from his one year suspension to lead the Boston Red Sox to the American League Championship Series, where they lost in six games to the Houston Astros. Boston’s deep postseason run exemplified the importance of organizational depth, as the Red Sox used a total of 56 players last season. Yet, despite advancing to within games of the World Series, Boston is no guarantee to replicate their success in an extremely competitive American League East division in 2022–especially after losing Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber in the offseason. Let’s take a deep dive into their roster ahead of Opening Day.

Lineup Preview

Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Boston ranked 8th in OPS, 18th in ISO, 3rd in strikeout percentage, 19th in walk rate, and 10th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Red Sox ranked 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 17th in strikeout percentage, 19th in walk rate, and 5th in wRC+.

Following a career-high 23 home runs in 2019, Christian Vasquez has only 13 home runs in 185 regular season games across the last two years. In 2021, Vasquez ranked in the 9th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and barrel percentage. Once thought of as a tremendous offensive advantage at his position, there are major question marks for Vasquez as he prepares to turn 31 years old. 

From August 5th to September 2nd last summer, Bobby Dalbec posted a .377 batting average, .457 on-base-percentage, and an .820 slugging percentage. During that hot stretch, he also turned in a 10.0 percent walk-rate while only striking out in 21.4 percent of his plate appearances. Though it is easy to see the tantalizing potential in the former 4th round draft selection, he ended the year in the 2nd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 15th percentile in walk rate while playing atrocious defense at first base. Dalbec is still only 26 years old, but the hype is beginning to wear off the further he gets into his career without improving his plate discipline and contact ability.

In his first full season with an everyday role, Alex Verdugo was exactly what many pundits expected he would be–excellent against right-handed pitching, abysmal against left-handed pitching, and frustrating to watch defensively. In his career, Verdugo owns an .847 OPS against right-handed pitching, but only a .674 OPS against left-handed pitching. His name and the lack of a viable offensive alternative are likely to give him another season of full-time play, but he is trending towards becoming the better half of a platoon in the next couple of years if he cannot improve against southpaws. Still, he possesses elite contact rates and enough power to hit the gaps at Fenway Park. He is an outstanding 6th best hitter on any team.

Stuck as a utility player on a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers roster for six seasons, Enrique Hernandez was finally able to settle into a stable everyday role with the Red Sox in 2021. The results were tremendous, posting an .856 OPS from July 19th until the end of the regular season. As has been the case throughout his career, Hernandez did his most damage against left-handed pitching. Still, he ended the year in the 66th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, strikeout and walk percentage. He also excelled defensively in center field. Heading into the final year of his current contract, Hernandez should be plenty motivated to produce for Boston in 2022.   

Jackie Bradley Jr. had his worst offensive season of his career in 2021, batting a dismal .163 while striking out in 30.8 percent of his plate appearances. He finished the year in the lowly 1st percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. His defense remains very good, but one has to wonder if his bat will survive another full year to keep his glove on the field.

Last year, Christian Arroyo was limited to 57 games due to spending 67 days on the injured list. He also missed a considerable amount of time after spending nearly a month on the COVID-injured list. A former first round draft selection, Arroyo has never quite lived up to expectations. Entering his age 27 season, he is capable of being a strong platoon option against left-handed pitching, but he is an otherwise replaceable bat who continues to get more opportunities due more to his prospect reputation than anything else.

Boston Red Sox MVP Odds

Rafael Devers (+2000)

If there is one player that Boston fans do not have to worry about, it is Rafael Devers. In 2021, he improved to the 49th percentile in strikeout percentage, which was the last major weakness in his offensive profile. He improved his wOBA against fastballs, breaking pitches, and offspeed offerings compared to 2020 to be more in-line with his 2019 breakout performance. He ranked in the 89th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Factor in that Devers has played in 369 of a possible 384 games since the beginning of 2019, and it becomes difficult to ignore his potential on the futures market.

Dever’s AL Most Valuable Player odds are +1800 at PointsBet Sportsbook, but you can get +2000 odds on the BetMGM app.

Trevor Story (+3000)

Trevor Story signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox in March, but it is worth wondering, why? Story has never played second base in his six-year big-league career. This is unlikely to help the Red Sox improve on what was the second-worst fielding percentage in the MLB in 2021–better only than the Miami Marlins. Story posted his worst offensive numbers since 2017 last summer, hitting only 24 home runs while batting .251 with a pedestrian 8.9 percent walk-rate. Story was actually significantly worse than league average in 434 plate appearances against right-handed pitching–not something to gloss over. Perhaps more importantly, Story’s career home and away splits are staggering. At Coors Field, he owns a .972 OPS, .300 ISO, and a 125 wRC+. On the road, he owns a .752 OPS, .201 ISO, and a 98 wRC+.

When it comes to MLB futures betting, Forget winning an MVP, it is debatable as to whether Story will even be better than league average in his new uniform. 

Xander Bogaerts (+4000)

Entering what is likely to be his final year with the Red Sox, Xander Bogaerts is perhaps an MVP award away from putting his name on a Cooperstown track–yeah, he has been that good. Since the beginning of 2018, Xander Bogaerts owns a .299 batting average and an .894 OPS while striking out in fewer than 18 percent of his plate appearances. His defense at shortstop is poor, but his bat has been 35 percent better than league average in that span, as measured by wRC+. If Bogaerts remains healthy in 2022, expect him to once again hit 25 home runs and flirt with 100 RBI. He likely won’t be good enough to win MVP, but should once again offer extreme value at his position.

J.D. Martinez (+9000)

Last summer proved three things regarding J.D. Martinez–1) his career-worst numbers in 2020 were an aberration; 2) at age 33, signs of aging are undeniable; 3) Martinez is still an excellent hitter. In 2021, Martinez ranked in the 81st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. However, his ISO was the worst he has posted in a full season since 2016 and his strikeout percentage was the worst he has posted in a full season since 2018. Martinez’s .286 batting average was likely buoyed somewhat by a .340 BABIP. Make no mistake, he is still a productive bat, but Martinez is no longer an MVP candidate.