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Tuesday’s MLB Best Bets: Three Picks for July 27

Nick Galaida Tue 7/27 8:58am PT
MLB picks
(Imagn)

After a relatively light slate of action on Monday, all 30 MLB teams are in action on Tuesday, meaning that sports bettors have plenty of choices to try to earn some profit with MLB betting picks this evening. 

Let’s take a look at the odds and some of the best bets across the league this evening.

MLB picks for Tuesday, July 27th

Rangers ML (-142)

Bettors may hesitate to trust the Texas Rangers with any of their hard-earned money, considering the fact that they have lost 12 games in a row and are still yet to find their way into the win column since the All-Star break. However, the Rangers have a prime opportunity to earn a victory this evening behind Dane Dunning, who will be opposed by Taylor Widener of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dunning’s overall numbers are uninspiring to the casual eye, but he has some of the most stark home and away splits of any pitcher in Major League Baseball. In his career at Globe Life Field, he owns a 2.97 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, and a 29.2 strikeout-percentage across 65.1 innings of work. He has an extremely favorable matchup in this one against an Arizona lineup that ranks dead-last in both OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching on the year. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has also continued to struggle overall into late-July, ranking 21st in OPS and 22nd in ISO over the last 30 days. The main risk factor on this play is the fact that the Rangers offense has been missing in action lately–ranking 30th in OPS and 27th in ISO over the last month. Still, Dunning should be good enough tonight to earn the Rangers a win, even if he does not get much help from his batters. 

Nationals vs. Phillies Over 10 runs (-110)

Bettors will be hard-pressed to find a worse starting pitching matchup in the 15-game slate this evening than Erick Fedde against Matt Moore. On the year, Fedde owns a below-average 4.88 ERA, 4.78 xERA, and a 4.46 FIP. His last five turns through the rotation have been even worse with an 8.71 ERA and a 5.96 FIP. The Philadelphia Phillies are quietly starting to come to life in the National League East standings–sitting one game above the .500 mark entering play. Over the last 30 days, their offense ranks a respectable 14th in OPS and ninth in ISO, and they should be able to improve further upon those numbers this evening against a very hittable, Fedde. Moore has predictably struggled in 2021–posting a 5.79 ERA, 5.12 xERA, and a 5.68 FIP. He has coupled an unimpressive 19.2 strikeout-percentage with an alarming 10.4 percent walk-rate. In his last five starts, he has continued to be ineffective, owning a 4.91 ERA and a 5.26 FIP. The Washington Nationals do not have a great record, but their offense ranks second in OPS and sixth in ISO over the last month. They should have little trouble putting pressure on Moore right from first-pitch in this one. Expect plenty of run-scoring opportunities here in a hitter-friendly ballpark, with below-average talent on the mound. Take the over.

Dodgers vs. Giants Over 8 runs (-110)

Over the last three years, Oracle Park has been the second-most pitcher-friendly venue in the league during night games. However, in 2021, this ballpark has graded much closer to league average in terms of offensive production–a fact that the market has been slow to adjust to. The market has also been slow to adjust to Julio Urias’ recent struggles. After an excellent beginning to the campaign, he has fallen off dramatically over his last 10 starts with a 4.29 ERA and a 4.50 FIP during that stretch. Prior to this year, he had never thrown more than 79.2 innings in a season. Fatigue could be a real problem for him in the second-half of 2021 as he prepares to go over the 120.0 inning threshold this evening. Logan Webb has been excellent since returning from the injured list, albeit in limited action. Tonight, he gets to face the Dodgers for the second time in less than 10 days, which is a difficult task for any pitcher in any situation, but especially so when the opposing lineup ranks fifth in OPS and first in ISO over the last month of games. Having just played a four-game set last week, these offenses are also very familiar with each other’s bullpen options. There should be quite a few baserunners in this one, making a small play on the over a worthwhile risk.